You have a choice to play one of three games for money:
Choice A: there are 6 dice in a box with which you are to roll a six
Choice B: there are 12 dice in a box with whch you are to roll two sixes
Choice C: there are 18 dice in a box with whch you are to roll three sixes
Which of these options has the best odds? Why? Note, that for some reason I know the answer, but my memory of stats has eluded me, so I have not written out the (simple) proof yet.
The odds are identical? Just a guess…
Okay, that’s certainly not intuitive, but it’s reassuring that it takes some non-intuitive probability calculations to decide:
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Newton-PepysProblem.html
None other than Sir Newton himself! (Why does that sound wrong without the “Isaac?”)