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Prediction Markets

The Importance of Predictions Markets – Markets for Ideas, Futures Markets in Everything!

  1. This special interest group has been established as a resource for researchers and practitioners who are interested in the field of prediction markets. Markets for Forecasting dot com.
  2. A blog on prediction markets – Midas Oracle
  3. Another blog on prediction markets – by some inside experts, but is much more than that.
  4. Another blog on prediction markets – Oddhead.
  5. A new book on prediction markets – Predictocracy
  6. Here is Steven Levitt’s take and some commentary on these markets
  7. Check out Robin Hanson’s fantastic site on Idea Futures (aka Prediction Markets or Information Markets)
  8. A fantastic betting site for BIG thinkers. You can bet on things like:
    • “by 2030 commercial passengers will rountinely fly on pilotless planes.”
    • “by 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.”
    • “by the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.”
    • “by the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.”
  9. The Iowa Electronic Market was a groundbreaking political market that has performed remarkably well over the years. It has substantially outperfromed opinion polls over the years.
  10. Hedgestreet – they claim, “HedgeStreet ® is the first Internet-based, government regulated market where traders can hedge against or speculate on economic events and price movements. HedgeStreet significantly expands the investment, risk-hedging, and profit-making opportunities available to traders at all levels.” Among the things you can bet on: Will insured property damage from Hurricane Season 2006 exceed $1 billion?
  11. Similar site at Wahlstreet
  12. Consensus view allows traders to, “share their market forecasts and see the consensus view of where markets are heading.” Chris Masse has opined, ” Play-money prediction exchanges don’t have human market makers, and it’s those who have predictive power.”
  13. A really neat site is Tradesports.com. Among other things, they recently held a market predicting who the next pope would be. here is a description from their site:  “TradeSports.com is a person-to-person trading “Exchange”. It allows you to trade in the most innovative, transparent and exciting way on financial, sporting, current events, entertainment and many similar events. TradeSports members trade directly with each other, bypassing the middle-man.”
  14. Tradesports has a sister site that trades, among other things, politics, current events, financial indicators & weather
  15. A foreign exchange prediction market at Ideosphere
  16. You can now buy options on sporting event tickets!
  17. Wanna buy a share of Tiger Woods? You can at ProTrade.

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