According to this paper:
Our simulations cover the period from 2015 to 2105, and assume stable energy demandelasticities and energy efficiency improvement factors. Using an elasticity carbon pricingmethod, we calculate implied revenues of roughly 6% of Gross World Product (GWP)on average across the whole time period.
Allow me to translate. These guys are estimating that carbon tax revenues around the globe will be equal to 6% of global GDP. This amounts to about $3.6 trillion per year, more than double with the IPCC folks seemed to have been recommending. I once wrote a piece called a “Cool Trillion.” And a mere 5 years later I was off by a factor of four?
Reading further in the paper you will find out why our authors think this is a nice idea:
Simulations suggest that continued higher growth in lower wage large population economies, and especially China, will be a powerful force driving global inequality reduction. But carbon pricing financed redistribution can also play a role in significantly reducing both global inequality and absolute poverty.If revenues are redistributed to countries on an equal per capita basis (wintercow emphasis), the global Gini coefficient falls, on average, by an extra 4.9% over the period 2015 – 2105, and the bottom decile share increases by a further 21.2%. Furthermore, if carbon pricing revenues are used to directly fund transfers to the poor within countries, our simulations suggest that using tax revenues in this way could also bring significantly more individuals and households globally above global poverty lines.
You see, it’s a free lunch. We impose $3.6 trillion of taxes on rich nations, the planet cools, and poor people rise out of poverty. Phew. Now that this problem is solved, what next? I’d have you remember that no one ever rose out of poverty from redistribution. Ask the 500 million newly middle-class Chinese about this.
I can’t figure out … when people make predictions this large, that far into the future, are they guided primarily by hubris or ignorance?
You will get an informed and sympathetic response in the Senate from Pat , and I would suggest two avenues: first, Chris Chocola at the Club for Growth (which Steve Moore started, but of which Thoomey was president), and my brother, who knows Pat better than I.
You will find people who understand the way works, as opposed to Chuck Schumer or President Obama. But that is easier than a five-inch putt for a thousand dollars on the line.
Misspelled Toomey. Thomey was the disappointing slugger the Phillies got from Cleveland. You know whom I mean, in both cases.
Best wishes to Speedmaster, and my condolences to all who root for Great Lakes teams when they are whipped by the Flyers.
It is “Thome,” a baseball player who seldom got a hit when the Phillies really needed one.
It’s good to see all this global warming carbon taxing BS exposed for what it really is — a grand communist scheme designed to take from the producers and give to the non-producers. Fear not! The debut of Atlas Shrugged is on April 15!
Pat Toomey does not need three by five cards to speak articulately about economic matters. I expect big things from him.
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