Many forecasters make predictions based on extrapolating past trends into the future. Malthusians famously did this with population growth rates, materials alarmists do it with resource forecasts, debt-alarmists do it with borrowing forecasts, and so on. Here is perhaps a silly analogy, but one that unfortunately is necessary to make the point that it is almost irresponsible to use prior growth rates to predict future growth rates, even for many processes that we have a solid understanding of, but certainly for processes that are complex.
Consider that a typical oak tree grows by 2′ per year. On the basis of watching your seedlings grow to 10 feet tall after 5 years, and 20 feet tall after 10 years, would you argue that in 500 years’ time, your oak tree would stand at 1000 feet tall?
Or consider that a large newborn baby is about 10 pounds. And typically that baby will grow to weigh about 20 pounds after his first year of life. Would you take anyone seriously who tapped you on the shoulder and said, “hey, Wintercow, your son Isaac grew to 20 pounds after his first year, where are you going to put all 5,120 pounds of him when he is 10 years old?”
This is the curse of Microsoft Excel in the hands of people who never understood quadratic equations or calculus.
Isaac is aptly named.
I always got a kick out of reading explanations for a drop in a good company’s stock when quarterly earnings disappointed street forecasts by a penny or two. Before the accountants were done with the numbers, the Chairman of the Board did not know what the earnings would be down to the penny.
Now that we have transparency with Sarbanes-Oxley, Dodd-Frank, and a reinvigorated SEC, the forecasts of financial analysts are sure to improve.
8995 512564Outstanding post, I conceive weblog owners ought to acquire a lot from this blog its extremely user pleasant. 704310
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your site and in accession capital to assert that I get in fact enjoyed account your blog posts.
Anyway I’ll be subscribing to your feeds and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.!
Howdy! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good success.
If you know of any please share. Thank you!
You can read similar text here: Wool product
794027 830557Companion, this web internet site will be fabolous, i merely like it 175777
Thanks to knowledgeable and dedicated people like you, the internet becomes a more useful place for travelers. I loved your article and have already started applying what I learned from it to my upcoming trip. We also discussed a similar topic about budget travel on TravelForums. Thank you so much!
This is a topic that is near to my heart… Thank you! Exactly where can I find the contact details for questions?
Dinle: Uykusuz (skit) Türkçe Rap Beat
Dinle: Niye? (Duvara Karşı Edit) Türkçe Rap Beat
Your article was so explanatory and helpful that I got completely immersed in it as I was reading. I think it’s one of the best pieces written about travel planning. We also discussed something similar about family vacations on TravelForums. Thanks so much for your effort!