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$100 at even odds. President Obama will win reelection next year. Is it bothersome to anyone who brutal the Republican field is at this time? I’d also put out there that Obama is a far stronger President than he is being given “credit” for.  I’d probably stiffen the bet and agree that he will win by at least the same margin as he did against McCain.

PS I’m not rich enough to take on too many of these bets!

12 Responses to “Who Wants to Bet Me?”

  1. Mike says:

    I won’t take the bet straight up.

    There are not many convervatives/libertarians/minarchists (especially that vote) that will hold the republican nominee as the lesser of two evils, when compared to the number of statists that will realize that Obama is much more in line with their interests than the republican nominee.

    Now the bet on the margin, that is more interesting as I believe there will be a lot of Obama voters that will stay home in November. I’ll have to think about it.

  2. jb says:

    I will not take the bet either.

    It seems to me the reason there are so few strong candidates has a lot to do with “campaign finance reform”. Individual contributions are limited to $4,000 or something like that, so it is much more costly in terms of time and effort for a well qualified but unknown candidate to run versus a well known name. He has to spend all of his time doing the chicken-dinner thing to haul in $4,000 at at time, and he needs more money because the first order of business is name recognition (“getting the name out” as they say). Perhaps this is why we are seeing the rise of so many celebrity and super-wealthy candidates (Reagan, Corzine, Al Franken, Trump, Carly Fiorina, etc). Maybe it is our destiny is to be ruled increasingly by the 1% celebrities and super wealthy.

  3. Andrew says:

    Just for the record, this contract is also even money at Intrade.

  4. Harry says:

    Well, Wintercow, I will take the bet. If I lose, then what’s a hundred bucks worth? If I win, we can have a party at Wegeman’s. How many sushi rolls does a hundred bucks fetch?

  5. Speedmaster says:

    I think there’s a better than even chance that Obama wins again. Mix a dependent populace (see Dr. Higgs on the subject http://bit.ly/tK0e9b ), several generations of ignoramuses “educated” by the NEA and government schools, and the usual political dirty tricks, dead-people voting, busing of homeless, etc. it almost seems like a lock.

  6. Harry says:

    Speedmaster, are you not taking Rizzo’s bet? If he wins, he can throw the party (a wake?), and if he loses, he can still come to the party.

  7. RIT_Rich says:

    I’ll totally take that bet.

  8. Harry says:

    If Rizzo and Speedmaster want to double down in October, we could have a really good party, or a good wake.

  9. Harry says:

    RIT_Rich gets invited. Rizzo gets to invite Krugman, and I will call Toomey. Cream pies for dessert. I will buy the cigars. Wives invited, too.

  10. Harry says:

    Speedmaster makes a great point about the dead and homeless, Acorn’s constituency. Then there are the New York Floridians, and the students in Minnesota who voted three times, once in college, once in the Mesabi range, and once for Chuck Schumer. In Philadelphia every year precincts open with hundreds of votes from people voting in alphabetical order. This is the reason why they protest against people at the polls asking for a photo ID, like a driver’s licensce. If you are a Wahabbi taxi cab driver, you can get registered to vote when you get your renewal for your card, no questions asked. Motor Voter.

    This said, I still take Wintercow’s bet, as a confident political handicapper.

  11. Rod says:

    Intrade is a pretty good indicator, as people actually bet their own money. Now, if Obama hands out hundred dollar bills to people who will use the money for a bet on him, that’s another story.

    I might take the bet if the nominee is someone other than Romney. As time goes on here, I see Romney morphing into Bob Dole, McCain, John Anderson, Ross Perot, and even Read My Lips No Nude Axes GHWB. While I have heard him speak critically of Obama, he fights according to Marquis of Queensbury Rules. Republicans do that. It’s perverse, but they do that.

    The current situation also reminds me very much of the waning days of Jimmy Carter. Twenty percent interest rates along with an accelerating rate of inflation, the hostages in Tehran, unemployment worsening all the time, gas lines, shortages of everything and Carter talking about Malaise. Or was it mayonnaise? Now, somehow inflation has been dampened (by leaving food and energy out of the CPI), but everyone I know is complaining about higher prices. Our most advanced drone, a weapon that has not even been pictured in Jane’s Defense Weekly, went down in Iran recently, and the British embassy in Tehran was stormed by the sons and daughters of the same bozos who took over the US embassy when the Ayatollah was swept into power. Unemployment stats for the Christmas season show misleading improvement. I could go on….

    Now, it is entirely possible that the GOP will nominate the weakest candidate (Romney, IMHO), but once that’s done, I bet the economy worsens and that all hell breaks loose in the middle east. Remember,, the pollsters and the media gave the election to Carter before the votes were cast.

    Harry’s right, by the way, about Philadelphia. Entire precincts have 100 percent of the voters cast their votes. The New Black Panther Party stands in front of the polls in West Philadelphia to make sure Republicans can’t enter the polling place. And you can vote in Philadelphia AND Chester if you get an extra driver’s license. Allyson Schwartz will help you fill out an absentee ballot the right way.

    Also, those few pressies on the conservative side — on Fox News, mainly — keep getting drawn into framing the argument for the complete convenience of Obama and his spin guys.

  12. Michael says:

    Fortunately I gave up gambling. But I can make some observations: Romney doesn’t get much traction because I think the only problem he has with Obamacare is that it was signed by a (D) and not an (R). Gingrich, although another statist, at least fought to limit the expansion of government (not cutting) to balance a budget, sort of.

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