Economists like to model everything. Open up any issue of the American Economic Review and you will find all kinds of fancy expositions on optimal interventions in markets with adverse selection, the effects of housing assistance on labor supply, whether union militancy can promote economic growth, models of credit constraints, models of persuasion, currency misalignments and much, much more. (Aside: there are days when I consider converting this blog into a simple synthesizer of what’s new in economic research, but my sense is that there is not a very big market for reading is, so I stash all those away for class prep – only to have students think I make up the stuff anyway).
And in modern macroeconomics we have all kinds of fancy models, in particular New Keynesian models which go a step beyond old Keynesian IS-LM models to more intimately incorporate consumption decisions over time than their old school counterparts. And while the New Keynesian model still relies on talking about the identity C+I+G = Y, it takes a much greater effort to incorporate some of the macro-realities that we’ve come to understand since the 1970s. So, these models have elaborate underlying models of consumption and investment and they recognize that prices are not sticky all the time and in all places.
That’s great.
But what’s not great, and what I simply do not see in most places is economists taking any time to model out G. Think about that for a moment. Even in some of the papers I mentioned above it is simply assumed that government is neutral and works the way we wish it to work in our head. Government spending and consumer spending are interchangeable. When the government spends a dollar it really only spends a dollar. The role of incentives and information is assumed away or relegated to a footnote that suggests that what is modeled out may not be what actually occurs. And of course, very little effort is given to modeling out the productivity of government expenditures (an old paper did do that once, and I have a student who is following up on that paper now).
So, we have a model of everything except for the one thing we really need a model of: government. I am sure you will hear things like, “well, it’s just too complex with too many moving parts” to model. Maybe. But that does not prevent us from modeling, and in some impressive detail, other extremely complex systems. Keep this in mind the next time you see an I-S curve tell you this is how the goods market works, or an L-M curve tell you this is how the money market works or a consumption function telling you how individuals decide to consume or save … where is the analogous picture in the government sector? And are all governments created equal? Would you model the federal government out the same way as the states and local governments? Why?
If you think I was given the tools to do such a thing in graduate school, think again. I spent my time in graduate school regurgitating things like this:
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To model G, you have to factor in what side of the bed Chuck Schumer gets out on, and whether there is a TV camera nearby.
I had an acquaintence who was a believer in technical analysis because he said the fundamentals, or a consensus of analysts on the fundamentals made the market reflect the news, and that all that was left for an investment advisor to guess at was “market timing.” Now, I don’t believe that, but instead I can understand how stock buyers can run in a herd (not Wintercow’s herd.) But what is the news, anyway? It’s all so intenseley political, at best, or naked propaganda at its worst. The wildebeests (or is the plural ‘wildebeest’?) run from the lion, but they also would probably run if you flipped on MSNBC while Rachel Maddow was doing her thing. Or, in the interest of balance, if O’Reilly interrupted them when they were testing the crocodile-infested watering hole.
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