- Global warming (or climate change or whatever I am supposed to call it) is real.
- Doubling of CO2 concentrations should increase temperatures by 1 degree C absent feedback.
- The “expert” consensus on the ECS is something between 1.5C and 4.5C, but really, it is hard to nail down a precise answer.
- CO2 concentrations have increased by over 120ppm since 1880. Most of this is surely due to human emissions.
- Average global temperatures (ignore the challenges and variation issues) have increased over 0.8C-0.9C over the time period of 1880-today (for fun, compute the implied climate sensitivity here, virtually no one does this simple exercise).
- Half of the temperature increases have come from the 1950s, with half coming before (mass industrialization really picked up after WW2).
- Scientists expect that over half of the late-20th century warming is due to humans. For sake of argument, say ALL of it is. So, the 0.2 to 0.3 of warming at start of period to WW2 happened in a time of much lower industrial activity, the rest in a time of increased human activity.
- Humans continue to emit not only CO2, but also other GHGs, and global CO2 concentrations can be reasonably expected to rise, and quite considerably, over the next century.
- This additional warming will cause sea level rise, ocean acidification, changes in growing patters, insect vectors, water vapor concentrations, more intense storms (though not more frequent), as among the most widely accepted causes.
- These changes will impose real financial and human costs, but not equally so, they will be different in different parts of the world.
- There is tail risk – in both directions, that is really hard to model.
Without going into detail on any of that, I would argue that this is the accepted climate consensus (actually, what is popularly referred to as consensus is much more limited than this, but let’s just go with it).
OK, so what is the reason I am writing all of that? Well, it seems that no matter how many zillions of times you make all of the above clear, you are accused of being a gun-toting, bible-bashing, world-hating Republican who doesn’t even believe the planet is warmer today than in the past. I kid you not. It is quite literally not possible to speak of anything except insane catastrophe and massive original-sinism on this topic.
So, where am I going here? Well, given all of this, I am definitely of the opinion (hopefully folks will grant me the possibility that it is informed via many years of study of both the climate stuff and doing the economics) … that …
- It’s not going to kill you
- It’s just not that big a deal (I can write 100s of pages on this)
- On the other hand, even if the costs of unabated climate change are “not that big a deal” … SO TOO are the costs of well-crafted policies (folks will conveniently ignore that I wrote the latter part).
- If climate change is going to kill us all, it is going to be because we let the far more serious risks that we are used to end up wreaking huge amounts of damage. Just to remind people, the number of suicides in China each year are anywhere from 100,000 to 250,000. The number of young children who die of diarrhea each year exceeds 800,000. The number of people around the globe who die from indoor and outdoor air pollution is 7 million. The number of people around the globe who die from infectious diseases is 10 million. There is not a single climate scenario that gets global annual deaths from climate change (for fun, ask exactly HOW climate change is expected to kill people) anywhere near being relevant in comparison to the latter numbers on this list. The World Health Organization uses a very high estimate that over the next century, climate change will kill an additional 250,000 people per year. My reading of the literature is that nowhere near that number will happen, but just go with it and place it in perspective. This is saying that around the globe, even as billions of people emerge from poverty, and even as the siren call of warning about climate has been sounded year after year after year after year, we are going to having 250,000 people dying in storms, droughts, floods and starvation over and above the baseline levels of suffering. EVEN IF you do not want to challenge any of that, and it is very challenge-able, that number (and enacting policies to reduce it by directly dealing with climate change) is simply not very large when compared to the myriad global risks we already face and also the potential risks that are out there such as global pandemics, biological and nuclear warfare and the like.
- The point is, that climate change is real, can be costly, will not impact people equally … YET, it is just not going to be a “big deal” (yes, go ahead, feel free to interpret that out of context), And no, that doesn’t mean that smart and aggressive policies ought not be followed now – for I believe there are several good no-regrets policies out there. But it is high time for folks to stop telling my kids that they have destroyed mother earth, that this is the gravest threat humanity has ever faced, and that we are doomed. We know how that movie ends.
If I did not have to spend dozens of hours of my life making these points, maybe I’d have a few minutes to actually put the work in to finish the climate economics book – it is sorely needed.
Sadly, an indicator of partisan politics. I’ve been ejected from polite company for similar statements.
You should try making the point that the best way to reduce people’s energy usage is to allow utility companies to charge monopolistic rates. Of course that leads to other unintended consequences, but hey, it’s makes us feel like we’re doing something for the environment!
Mike it’s a great point.
Think about the two observations typically made about markets:
(1) Markets create excessive waste, and produce negative externalities such as pollution, if left unregulated
(2) Markets are prone to concentration, monopoly and hence reductions in output, if left unregulated
I tend to agree with both of these in a static sense, but of course they sit very uncomfortably next to one another.
Thank you very much for sharing, I learned a lot from your article. Very cool. Thanks.
480687 376764Cpr KIts very wonderful read you know alot about this subject i see! 864482
110595 806451Some genuinely great weblog posts on this internet web site , thankyou for contribution. 767057
799273 13877I like this web site quite significantly so a lot excellent information. 206036
679 653097I observe there is a lot of spam on this weblog. Do you require assist cleaning them up? I may assist among classes! 168367
440840 481843Cause thats required valuable affiliate business rules to get you started on participating in circumstances appropriate for your incredible web-based business concern. Inernet marketing 823306
285074 542589Some truly nice stuff on this website , I it. 675255
776144 962734Amazing blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere? A design like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog shine. Please let me know where you got your theme. Thanks 69052
Say, you got a nice blog article.Really looking forward to read more. Really Great.
I love it when individuals come together and share opinions.Great blog, continue the good work!
316512 691838 You should take part in a contest for one of the finest blogs on the internet. I will recommend this internet site! 285904
zithromax indications can i get zithromax over the counter zithromax how to take
Having read this I thought it was very informative. I appreciate you taking the time and energy to put this article together. I once again find myself spending a lot of time both reading and posting comments. But so what, it was still worth it!
I cannot thank you enough for the article post.Much thanks again. Fantastic.
Awesome blog.Really looking forward to read more. Awesome.
Im obliged for the post.Really looking forward to read more. Will read on…
I cannot thank you enough for the post.Thanks Again. Will read on…
Enjoyed every bit of your article post.Really looking forward to read more. Keep writing.
Thanks for sharing, this is a fantastic post.Really looking forward to read more. Fantastic.
I appreciate you sharing this article.Really thank you! Will read on…
Im thankful for the article post.Much thanks again.
I am so grateful for your blog article. Want more.
Heya i’m for the first time here. I came across thisboard and I find It really useful & it helped me out a lot.I hope to present one thing back and help others likeyou helped me.
Hey! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any problems with hackers?My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing several weeksof hard work due to no back up. Do you have any solutions toprotect against hackers?
Nice read, I just passed this onto a friend who was doing a little research on that. And he just bought me lunch as I found it for him smile Therefore let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch!
A round of applause for your blog post. Fantastic.
Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Thank you so much, However I am having troubles with your RSS. I donít know why I cannot join it. Is there anybody else getting similar RSS issues? Anyone who knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanx!!
Looking forward to reading more. Great blog article.Much thanks again. Want more.
I really liked your post.Thanks Again. Really Great.
Thank you for any other magnificent post. Where else could anyone get that kind of information in such an ideal manner of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I am at the search for such info.
There is certainly a great deal to know about this subject. I really like all of the points you’ve made.
Thanks for your marvelous posting! I certainly enjoyed reading it, you might be a great author.I will be sure to bookmark your blog and definitely will come back from now on. I want to encourage you to continue your great posts, have a nice day!
I really like reading an article that will make men and women think. Also, many thanks for allowing for me to comment.
wonderful submit, very informative. I ponder why the other expertsof this sector do not realize this. You should continue your writing.I’m confident, you’ve a huge readers’ base already!
It is in reality a great and useful piece of information. I¦m satisfied that you simply shared this helpful information with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
Great article post.Really looking forward to read more.
Your point of view caught my eye and was very interesting. Thanks. I have a question for you.
ivermectin coronavirus ivermectin 50 – purchase ivermectin
I think this is a real great blog.Much thanks again. Keep writing.
Im thankful for the article.Much thanks again. Keep writing.
I\\\ ave had a lot of success with HomeBudget. It\\\ as perfect for a family because my wife and I can each have the app on our iPhones and sync our budget between both.
arcade apartments carmichael apartments kendall apartments
UID_74743238###
Ini dia! ASN BKN Ubah Pola Kerja yang baru dan efisien! .
UID_83344528###
Inilah Pupuk Inovatif Kebun Riset Kujang yang bikin Wamen BUMN bangga!
UID_21891068###
Takjub dengan fenomena serbu gas? Yuk, baca Warung Tatang Diserbu Warga dan temukan faktanya! ️♀️