For a very long time, despite the shenanigans played by some in the climate science community, I have been strongly persuaded (as has everyone) that global temperatures (whatever that means) have increased by about 1 degree centigrade since the recent warming began. Much of the serious debate has been the extent to which this is human caused, and how serious this warming is as compared to past experiences, such as the so called Medieval Warm Period.
But now I see this. I’ve just finished three books on climate shenanigans, and none makes mention of this as a possibility. Can anyone out there who knows anything about climate science help me get my thoughts around it? For those not wishing to click through, apparently there is some evidence that North American weather stations that have constantly reported data for 100 years are showing something quite different than we are accustomed to seeing. The image is below.
You can bet no executive of the IPCC ever saw that.
The writer of that piece would get an A from any non-Marxist professor as a dissertation for a B.S. Degree. He qualifies his observations and conclusions by saying he is a math expert, and does not have a Masters in Ecology from Penn State. That is a plus.
I have no degree in climatology, and will concede that Wintercow has subjected himself to reading far more, out of duty to his teaching. But I am similarly perplexed by ignorant people making global pronouncements that affect my rice bowl.
WC, did you see that map? It excluded, depending on how you look at it, anywhere from two thirds of the U.S. to 99.9 percent, even if the instruments were all calibrated to a thousandth degree centigrade, which they were not. They used somebody, not an MIT guy in a white coat, to read the thermometer in Wheeling, and it depended on whether each person read it from the right perspective.
Here comes the argumentum ad gerundem: anybody who took any lab course before digital scales and used slide rules to estimate the correct answer was .34 moles.
I agree with Wintercow that it may have warmed up, around a degree, plus or minus a degree. Does everybody need a degree to discuss this subject, and just because Chuck Schumer has a law degree, does that mean he rules the roost?
I’ve worked in the pharmaceutical industry for ~15 years now, and I guess I have a different standard than most for “proof” and “settled science”. The placebo-controlled trial brings with it a much higher standard for isolating effects than anything that goes on in climatology (or economics, for that matter), yet even there we see misleading results often enough. This approach answers the question “what if we did everything the same except this one thing?” It also requires that a scientist lay out his hypothesis ahead of time–any post hoc analysis that reveals interesting results is considered data dredging.
As much as this supports my world-view, this analysis looks like data dredging to me. Maybe it’s right and maybe this kind of work is the best we can do in climate science, but if you look at 20 parameters with a 95% confidence hurdle, one of them is going to show an erroneous result (there was a great XKCD on this).
Final thought: we won’t let even one member of the general public take even one pill of a drug that doesn’t show proof of efficacy and safety (P>0.05) in large placebo-controlled trials, but we will allocate billions of dollars based on trends, dredged data, and tree rings. The standards government holds itself to have always been lower than those it holds its citizenry to.
697029 83266if the buffalo in my head could speak german i would not know a god damm thing. What i do know is that the language of art is out of this world. 545054
344021 194467I really prize your work , Great post. 808815
930481 606882Would adore to always get updated fantastic site ! . 831798
124842 76122Some truly good and useful info on this internet site, likewise I conceive the style holds exceptional capabilities. 364532
156332 835101Cheers for this exceptional. I was wondering whether you were preparing of publishing related posts to this. .Keep up the excellent articles! 912789
Профессиональный сервисный центр по ремонту бытовой техники с выездом на дом. Мы предлагаем:сервис центры бытовой техники москва Наши мастера оперативно устранят неисправности вашего устройства в сервисе или с выездом на дом
602367 183586Of course like your web site but you require to check the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling troubles and I find it quite bothersome to tell the truth nevertheless Ill definitely come back once more. 461236